The following appeared at americasbestracing.net July 2 and was written by Noel Michaels
Colonial Downs is hosting another season of high-quality live racing and wagering in 2024. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Live Thoroughbred racing is enjoying a renaissance in Virginia and Colonial Downs is leading the way. The track located in New Kent, County, Va., about a half an hour outside Richmond, is set to host another quality season of racing starting July 11.
The 27-raceday meet in 2024 will feature live racing every Thursday, Friday, and Saturday throughout the nine-week season until Sept. 7, and fans can watch all of the action on FanDuel TV throughout the meeting.
Whether you are a horseplayer that is unfamiliar with the Colonial Downs meet or just need to bone-up your skills in time for the start of the new season, this meet handicapping preview is meant to give you a leg-up on the 2024 trends based on tips from the results of the last two summer meets run at Colonial Downs in 2022-23 in terms of which running styles and/or post positions are preferred in the various races and who will be the jockeys and trainers worth focusing on.
Getting to Know Colonial Downs
Turf racing at Colonial Downs. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Live racing will be contested every Thursday, Friday, and Saturday throughout the season. The majority of the races at the Colonial meet are run on the grass, with generally only a dirt race or two carded on any given day run on its unique 1 ¼-mile circumference main dirt drack. The rest of the dirt races at the meet, aside from a couple of stakes, will be in off-the-turf situations on rainy days.
Colonial Downs is synonymous with its turf racing and runs approximately 75% of its races on the grass in a dual-course configuration, including a 7 ½-furlong inner course and the outer 1 1/8-mile Secretariat turf course. Turf sprints are run at 5 ½ furlongs on the Secretariat course, while the vast majority of the grass route races are run on the inner turf.
Major Race Dates
The 2024 Colonial Downs live racing season will host 27 stakes races – mostly on the grass – offering a total of $5.7 million in purses. Colonial will play host to four graded stakes, topped by the Grade 1 Arlington Million on Aug. 10. The Arlington Million headlines what’s being called the Colonial Downs Festival of Racing, which also will include the Grade 2, $500,000 Beverly D. Stakes and the Grade 2, $500,000 Secretariat Stakes (all formerly run at Arlington International Racecourse). The Beverly D. again will be a part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series and will be a “Win and You’re In” race for the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
The track’s signature race is the Grade 3, $500,000 New Kent County Virginia Derby, which will headline a six-stakes closing day card on Sept. 7. That day’s corresponding race for 3-year-old fillies, the Virginia Oaks, will run for a purse of $250,000.
There have been a total of 161 turf sprint races run at Colonial Downs the past two seasons. The best running style in those 5 ½-furlong turf sprints were stalkers racing between 1-4 lengths off the lead. Stalkers won 48% of the turf sprint races (78-of-161), as opposed to speed horses on or close to the pace that won 36% of the turf sprints (58 wins in 161 races). Closers won just 25 of the 161 turf sprints, accounting for 16% of the races. In other words, bet horses with speed or tactical speed for the best chance at success in Colonial turf sprints.
Colonial Downs Turf Routes
Turf routes are where the off-the-pace runners really seem to hold the advantage at Colonial Downs. Almost all of Colonial’s 205 inner turf course routes were run at either one mile or 1 1/16 miles the past two seasons, and stalkers and closers excelled at both distances.
Closers racing at least 4 or more lengths off the early pace won 76 of the 205 inner turf routes in 2022-23, accounting for wins in 37% in of the inner turf routes. The highest amount of winners in these races the last two years were stalkers between 1-4 lengths off the pace, who won 81 times (39% of the races). Front-runners did the worst in these races with 49 wins in the 205 inner turf routes, accounting for 24% of the races. In terms of post positions, all draws out to and including post 6 played fair. Posts 7 and outward were a slight disadvantage.
Only 21 turf routes the past two years were run on the outer turf course and those races appeared to be fair to all in a small sample size.
Colonial Downs Dirt Track Tips
On the Colonial Downs main track, there were only 12 dirt routes run in 2023 and 11 dirt route races run in 2022. Sprints are much more prevalent on the main track. Colonial ran 41 dirt sprints in 2023 after having run 42 dirt sprints in 2022.
Early speed horses enjoyed an edge in dirt sprints, with 51% of the winners the last two years racing on or close within a length of the pace. Stalkers won most of the other races. Closers racing 4 or more lengths off the early pace had a terrible record in Colonial dirt sprints the past two seasons, with closers winning a total of just 7 of the 83 sprints, accounting for only 8% of the wins. Just two closing horses won last year. Post positions have played fairly. The sample size in dirt routes is too small to draw any conclusions about preferences.
Colonial Downs Leading Jockeys
Antonio Gallardo. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Purses are strong, so Colonial Downs attracts a lot of top horsemen to compete at its nine-week summer meet. The defending leading rider at Colonial Downs from the 2023 meet is Antonio Gallardo, who won 34 of 149 mounts for 23% win percentage. The other jockeys who topped 20 wins last year were Mychel Sanchez (28 wins), Jorge Ruiz (25 wins), and 2021 leading Colonial rider Horacio Karamanos, who finished fourth in the 2023 standings with 22 wins. The 2022 leading rider, Jevian Toledo, had a tough season last year with 18 wins and only an 11% win percentage. Toledo had led all Colonial jockeys with 25 wins from his 137 mounts for 18% in 2022 and will hope to rediscover that form this year.
Colonial Downs Top Trainers
In the trainer’s ranks, the 2023 leading trainer at Colonial Downs was Michael Trombetta, who won with 19 of 72 starters for 26%. Trombetta had won 11 races from 51 starters for 22% and looms a consistent high-percentage threat at Colonial in 2024. Colonial’s 2022 leading trainer, Michael Stidham, was second-leading trainer in 2023 with 12 wins (17%). He had similar stats when he won the title in 2022 with 13 victories from 61 starters for 21% that year.
A wide assortment of nationally prominent trainers can be expected to have several starters at Colonial Downs this season, led by Mark Casse, who was highly effective at the meet in 2023 when he won 10 races from just 42 starters for 24%. Others to watch include Steve Asmussen (3 wins in 2023 but 8 wins in 2022), Shug McGaughey (9-for-18, 50% in 2023), Graham Motion (5-for-27, 19% in 2023) and Mike Maker, who won with 4 of 15 starters in 2023 after winning 5 of his 9 starts in 2022.
Some other trainers that horseplayers should be keenly aware of based on their recent results at Colonial Downs include Kelsey Danner, who was tied for third leading trainer in 2023 with 10 wins (27%); and Mary Lightner, who doesn’t start a lot of horses but has won at a huge win percentage the last two years with 3 wins from 8 starters in 2023 after winning 4 times with 6 starters in 2022. More high-percentage barns at Colonial in 2023 were Steve Klesaris (4-for-10, 40%), Fausto Gutierrez (4-for-10, 40%), and Lilli Kurtinecz (4-for-12, 33%).
